2019 Australian Derby preview by Luke Murrell

The typical headline race this weekend is the ATC DERBY. Interestingly Australia is the only country in the world that doesn’t highly rate its Derby winners, and to be fair that’s largely because our Derby Winners are generally pretty average in the Scheme of things.

However this year looks to be a good betting race with a number of horses just making up the numbers.

When assessing the race the important thing is to remember a wet track at Rosehill is completely different to wet track at Randwick. So don’t assume they can’t handle it if they failed last week. Also remember NZ horses generally have us covered well and truly due to their NZ Derby runs. The NZ Derby is a far better platform than our horses coming up from 1600 and 2000m races.

Lets have a look at the runners this year and try and narrow things down.

To determine the likely winner we first must assess the race pace and then the race shape that is likely to unfold, and this year we find it should be a FAST RUN Race and therefore those who have drawn soft and saving ground will be highly advantaged.

Looking at the field it looks to be approx 5 lengths weaker than last years race.

  1. Extra Brut : Winner of the VRC Derby and that was his career best, if he ran up to that he would beat these by 4-5 lengths. However for those in his corner he is now 35 days between runs, strange, and that means his next to no hope. Since leaving Darren Weir the horse has lost 6-7 lengths and whilst he has had a recent trial, 2400m is a different pain barrier and I think he’s no hope off this platform.
  2. Madison County : He’s had 9 starts in his career at 1600m or less. He ran well in the Group 2 last week when not suited by the bias but I think his only here because the race lacks quality. He has some class and ability so not completely hopeless given this years field but it seems an after thought.
  3. In a Twinkling : A serious watch this horse. On the 7 day back-up after having conditions against last week. Had not much luck in the NZ Derby and should have won, I think he’s a decent horse for this race.
  4. Arrogant : Now something must have happened here whilst I have been away. How the hell is this thing favourite? He comes from a slow run NZ Derby where he had every chance and ran a 35.40s last 600m when getting all favors on speed. In the same race we had horses caught 4-wide and knocked over 2-3 times and they have run home in 5-6 lengths quicker, this clearly tells us he doesn’t run the trip. He now comes to the ATC Derby where they run much faster and if he is there at the 200m mark ill be staggered. He doesn’t run the trip. He was perfectly suited last week with residual fitness and still couldn’t get home and for mine $21 is too short and he’s our favourite, this is why bookies Drive Mercs.
  5. Chapada: Seems a good tough horse better suited to this distance range, but, he did start $26 last start and admittedly was the only one you want to take from that race for the Derby. He will beat his stablemate but not sure he is good enough to win, one to include in the place / exotics.
  6. Surely Sacred: Comes from last weeks prep run since coming from the NZ Derby, he started $2.30 in the NZ Derby and for that he has to be a winning chance.
  7. Platinum Invador: Got back and ran on plain last week, but, he did run a big race in the NZ Derby when 3rd coming from almost last. But he did save all ground in that race where some of the others fanned wide. He ran 34.35s in that so the distance will be no problem. He probably wants a firmer track and you can ignore last week’s 9 length defeat. The 7 days back up is great given his platform and is a good roughie.
  8. Global Exchange: He comes into this undefeated this prep. But whilst I wouldn’t laugh if you backed him I think he is a slight distance doubt and place is best.
  9. Stars of Carrum : His the best of the local horses for mine. He comes from a 2400m open age race which was run only average, but, he ran super I thought and he comes into this with fitness and might out tough them. Hugh Bowman rode one of the best Derby rides you will ever see in the Hong Kong Derby on my horse Furore and if he rides half as good here the horse will be in the finish.
  10. Aramyo: This horse wants a firm track to be at his best. Although he is very one paced he will be suited by the tempo. He’s a genuine top 5 chance but i think more of a place than a winning chance.
  11. Angel of Truth: On the 7-day back up is good. Although he got lots of favours with the bias on the day I think that was a rubbish race so have to be against him here.
  12. The Chosen One: I think he’s a good roughie for a place. He doesn’t have the ability of some of them but he will run the trip pout ok. I wont be including him in the win tickets but tick the box if you are putting him in for fourth in a wider exotic.
  13. Cossetot: He must be an iron horse, this will be his 9th run in his 1st prep and I hope he runs well. He’s probably going to lie down when he gets a spell and never get back up again, he’s no hope.
  14. Declarationofheart: Comes into this off a 22 day break and that’s enough to say you cant win a Derby. In an excellent yard but can’t win. He gives the impression the wetter the better so definite minor money chance.
  15. Costello: He started 30/1 last week when not suited by the biased track. Trainer has 100+ Group 1 winners so he knows his trade. He’s one that could blow most out if he runs a place at huge odds as Collett is fantastic on these hold up run on horses.
  16. Twinspier : Interesting horse as he has a recent 2200m run which is a good platform. That was a good tough run which will help him condition wise, minor money chance.
  17. Sharman: 7-day back up and Blinkers which are all plus. Failed last week but ignore that track. One who will like the wet and is well related horse who could do something at big odds.
  18. Frankely Awesome: Scratched so she can win the Oaks next week
  19. Yulong Tavion: He gets one tick and that’s the jockey. Apart from that he would have to start Friday night to be in the Finish Saturday arvo.

Summary

I think the race has limited chances but we are a good chance to see some big minor place exotics.

The first 4 is where the big pot is so i’d suggest:

1st : 3,6,9

2nd: 2,3,5,6,9,10,15,16,17

3rd: 1,2,3,5,6,,7,8,9,10,14,15,16,17

4th: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,17

Best of luck,

Luke Murrell

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