Luke Murrell’s Concorde Stakes preview.
A small but select field here and despite it being spring everyone is more talking Everest at present rather than the Cups so I thought we would preview the feature sprint race on the card.
I’ve worked the track to be better side of dead with the warm weather through the week but we have 1000m here at Randwick and despite the big track the 1000m races here are statically won by horses who lead or sit top 2 pairs.
We have a race here with the QLD visitor in Zoustyle who in 6 starts and 2 trials has never been led at any stage.
Tony Gollan has done a freakish job with him as to my eye he clearly had issues that need management.
His big issue here is he meets Nature Strip, arguably the fastest 1000m horse in Australia (by some way) but a horse who is renowned slow the first 50m from the gates.
On top of this we hear jockey comments that he’s the most relaxed horse he has ever been from JMac.
I’d say Currie will take a sit with Sunlight and Redzel in behind those pair on the fence and for mine the champ Redzel is gone and will revert to being a Group 3 horse now that he is getting older and I have to be against him.
Sunlight is a freakishly tough filly but has never won a 1000m race and I feel she could get burnt off here and won’t keep up.
We have Pierata then back with Graff on his inside to round out the map.
Download full Concorde Stakes day meeting speedmaps here.
The best advice when you bet at 1000m is to remember a golden rule for 1000m races, they are for 1000m horses only and whilst we have some very classy horses engaged here it really is a race in two and in my opinion.
I don’t have Zoustyle, although a flying machine, leading.
Typically what we will see happen is the QLD jockeys come to Sydney and show the Sydney hoops too much respect, if he does this and hands up the lead to Nature Strip then his chances are shot and he might as well stay home.
He probably has the scope being the young horse on the up but this is 4-5 lengths harder than what he has faced previously and as long as the tactics remain the same on Nature Strip and he is let stride then he will run this field into the ground.
I think Zoustyle if he is to be any chance has to lead and to be ridden aggressive but even then I think he will be outclassed by possible the worlds best 1000m sprinter.
If the predicted wind does occur you want to be on the horse on the fence getting a smoother run and I think Graff (who is really a 1400m horse) is the big danger to sprint well here.
He was very good in a lightning first up last prep when poorly ridden in a race run not to suit, but here he will get a good speed to chase down and at least saves ground which will help.
For Sunlight and Pierata fans I think they are better suited in other races and Saturday’s will be tough to win.
Prediction: 1st Nature Strip, 2nd Zoustyle, 3rd Graff
Luke Murrell has more than doubled his punt bank every year since he started as a professional punter, learn more about his service here or you can signup here. Use the code “10” at signup to get 10% of your first subscription!