With the new RVL regulations this year we see a very much weakened Spring Carnival and unfortunately this has flowed through to the Melbourne Cup for 2021.
I have to say thank goodness for the hot favourite in the race, as without him the race would have been such a lacklustre event in dire need of life support, but thankfully there is a horse to at least get people talking about.
Outside of him we have last year’s winner who looked completely “cooked” before a return to form last run (carrying 62.5kg to run 2nd in a weak Irish St Leger at Group 1 level).
The key to finding the winner of the Cup is generally fairly simple. The thing to remember with the Melbourne Cup is owners and connections get paid a staggering $160,000 even if you finish 12th, so hence the field attracts a lot of no hopers trying to get that top 12 finish to get a big pay day. I think it’s terrible as it encourages mediocrity and it’s something the race doesn’t need. Unfortunately with a lack of leadership in racing (outside PVL) these types of decisions are not for the betterment of the sport.
Australia’s best trainer of stayers was without doubt the great Bart Cummings and it was a well known maxim of his that to win the cup you needed miles in the legs and the golden rule has always been 10klm or 10,000 metres in today’s measurements.
The reason for this is it’s a brutal race (with a long history of breaking horses hearts) and you need a horse that is not only a decent horse, but they have to be ROCK HARD fit, if not you give your horse much chance. Plenty of trainers try each year and plenty fail simply not because they don’t have the best horse but because they don’t give them enough grounding. Lloyd Williams knows this and it’s why he is the most winningest owner.
If we look at the below chart we see the top 3 finishes of the Cup, in recent history only 2 horses in the last 13 years have won the race with less than this figure. The first was Green Moon and if you recall that race, the great Frankie Dettori slaughtered the rightful winner and Green Moon won a race that basically only started at the 400m, it was a farcical race and developed into a sprint home. The other race was Prince of Penzance who was 60m short but was trained by the freakish horseman in Darren Weir. You might also recall he had broken the Mooney Valley track record the start before winning the Moonee Valley cup so his grounding and lead up run was a brutal race well suited to the Melbourne Cup. In fact in most years we find the top 4 finishes are dominated by the horses with the most fitness in that preparation.
Make no mistake this distance with such a big field is most times the grand final for the horse and connections so fitness is King! You don’t have to be the best horse but you have to be fit otherwise history says you are NO HOPE!
Make no mistake this distance with such a big field is most times the grand final for the horse and connections so fitness is King! You don’t have to be the best horse but you have to be fit otherwise history says you are NO HOPE!
Luke Murrell
Of some concern this year again is we have seen the last 2 years Melbourne Cups being run at very slow tempos which gives the lessor horses more of a chance (hence why Tiger Moth got so close) Ditto the year before Vow and Declare won a race in a walking tempo but he had that good QLD grounding fitness wise and was a very fit horse which ultimately helped him to compete and beat far superior horses, albeit the tempo also helped to nullify his oppositions chances thanks to a A1 ride from Craig Williams.
For this year’s race we see what can only be described as a race full of horses all trying to run and finish 12th to get a cheque which is a shame but firstly I think we are a big chance to see a rubbish stop start average tempo only which really plays into the favourites hands.
If however the race and each horse is ridden to their strengths then we will see a fast run race which will really expose the favourite but so much depends on the Irish horses and connections and their tactics.
As you can see from the map there is very little pressure out wide – with maybe only Grand Promenade pushing on to maybe challenge Knights Order, but he has 3 flat tyres at present.
As we can see from the above there are a number of horses you can immediately put the pen through as connections just don’t have them fit enough for them to be able to be a genuine top 2 and winning chance.
I see the race unfolding 1 of 2 different ways.
The first and most likely is it will be a “VOW AND DECLARE” year where all the riders recognise they are on lessor horses and will be intent on “switching them off to run the trip” With no real pressure out wide the inside horses will pull up and it will be a messy sit and sprint type year which really suits horses on speed or those midfield and closer on the outside with momentum, forget about the backmarkers unless they are freakish horses like Protectionist or Cross Counter they don’t win from there. In this scenario it develops into a 700m sprint home and the favourite will shit in.
The 2nd scenario but less likely will get the favourite beaten!
D Oliver is without doubt in the top few in the land in terms of riders but he went too slow in the Caulfield Cup and this horse’s best ratings and attributes are its ability to sustain a run from 1200m plu. He has a huge set of lungs on him but his change of speed is limited. Perhaps the horse hated the 7 day back up in the Caulfield Cup (which is very likely) or perhaps he has another issue but Delphi is a chance in this Melbourne Cup only under one scenario, and that’s a fast run brutal race where the superior stayers reign, his rating’s and times he produced in Europe where not huge but they were very solid and certainly good enough to win this race, IF they ride him aggressive. Given he led and failed in the CC I suspect he will be given firm instructions to take a sit and ride him like he did in the Herbert Power. If they do that his winning chances diminish greatly and he then only becomes a place chance but what D Oliver does in that first half of the race will determine the chances of so many in the race.
The horse I hope we see ridden to his pattern is Twilight Payment who we tipped here last year publicly but even that ride was not suiting the horses best attributes and he won on pure class and ability, but make no mistake if he was ridden more aggressively he would have won by further.
Now this year all his form since that win has been well down on what he did the season before, EXCEPT for that last race, where he carried 62.5kg, carted the field up and whilst it wasn’t a very good field for Group 1 level he still ran well in good figures.
That run alone says he might be finally coming good again and perhaps he’s a horse like the great Red Cadeaux who when they arrive here just grow another leg. Connections will certainly be hoping so. However for Lloyd Williams his best hope is to let this horse lead and really lead and open the field up and set the speed. He is a very tough horse who can sustain a run for 1400m such are his lungs and with that weight you need momentum. If he sets up a lead watch out ! Whilst team riding is not allowed in Australia this tactic also suits PONDUS even better who needs a fast tempo. I for one hope they ride him this way and make it a genuine and interesting Melbourne Cup
Lets run through the runners and we will see what we can gleam.
#1 TWIGHTLIGHT PAYMENT (2) | $13
CASE FOR
- His one of the few horses in the race with some CLASS.
- J Mcneil is 17% over these staying distance.
CASE AGAINST
- History says they don’t win with that weight and it’s a big big drag.
SUMMARY
He has to be ridden aggressively and made to work in those middle stages, that gives him his best chance. He will run top 6 on class but that weight is a huge negative for the history of this race. I really can’t see him winning though even though I was so confident last year.
#2 INCENTIVISE (16) | $2.8
CASE FOR
- Visually looks a freakish horse.
- Has run his last 9 In QLD with some sprinter like sectionals over the distances up there (was eagle farm though).
- Jockey is 21% the last 30 days and is 21% these staying races also which is a huge plus.
- Terrible year and gets an amazing chance with no obvious danger with no other horse actually doing anything on current form.
- Sire is a freak.
CASE AGAINST
- Has he beaten a proper horse yet? ( is there a proper horse in the staying ranks here though?)
- Trainer is just 3 from 30 over the trip for 10%.
- His sectionals in the CC where only standard.
- High weighted horses really struggle historically in this race.
- Pedigree doesn’t have much stouteness for these marathon trips at all.
SUMMARY
Visually he could just kill them here as really struggling to find a horse that would start favourite in a proper Listed or Group 3 race outside the top few. I actually paid up and brought him for the Calcutta the other night so I think he is a genuine chance (thanks scoop) but he has plenty of holes all the same. The Caulfield Cup I think is a very smelly race as he got a lovely position and if you be fair dinkum there was two chances to beat him, DELPHI who had a flat tyre and didn’t race well at all and NONCOMFORMIST off an excellent run but a horse who will never win a race at 2400m in its life and it flashed and run 2nd. PERSAN was third up off a bad platform and hung on for third and the rest are genuine 10/1 chances in a decent listed race. The drag on the race is Greta House running 5th and chapade 6th, but lets be fair and say he can only beat what is in the race which is fair enough. Lets look and see if he attacks the line like it visually suggests. From the 1000m home he was 11.84/11.64, so 1 length quicken), then 11.82 then 11.78, so no quicken but maintains a speed which is good for further. And then from here he goes 12.78 which is a significant drop off the last 200m. We also know on this day the inside was horrendous and the first 5-6 lanes where no good which took half the field out of play. So he actually had a PR here to win from the outside gate which worked for him. If we look at the sectional rankings and what they where like for the day we find: 30th from the 1000-800, 36th from the 800-600m, 36th 600-400m, 39th 400-200m and the 39th L200. Winners keep winning and he has the boom on him where I’d suggest his profile will dictate not many really want to take him on, in any normal year I think his there to be beaten but this year is not a normal year and it’s there for him to lose. The ratings guys will have him very high on their figures so expect huge support for him but I don’t think its cut and dry given we find him at a new pain barrier. If very confident if it’s a serious staying fast run race he could be vulnerable, if they trot and hack through the middle stages his number is already in the frame. If we look at the 3yr olds (which we know are LEGLESS) we get the following 1000-800, 800-600m, 600-400, 400-200 and L200: DAISIES 12.44 – 54th, 12.04 – 41st, 11.72 – 25th, 11.72 – 25th, 12.84 – 30th. GUNSTOCK: 12.76 – 56th, 11.88 – 35th, 12.41- 41st, 11.98 – 34th, 12.98 – 35th. INCENTIVISE: 11.84 – 38th, 11.64 -26th 11.82 – 26th, 11.78 – 28th, 12.78 – 29th.
#3 SPANISH MISSION (14) | $12
CASE FOR
- His best ratings are 3-4 len better than the hot fav.
- He handles firm.
- Likes the bigger track.
- Distance no worries.
- On numerous occasions he’s broken 34 seconds on much stiffer testing tracks than Flemington so has a turn of foot.
- His the best of the Europeans.
- Brilliant trainer from England.
- His rider is a freak and the best big race rider.
CASE AGAINST
- The leg issue is a massive concern and has to be a huge negative.
- He gets back and if they get a slowly run race he is also poorly positioned.
- Rider having a poor carnival so far with 1 from last 35.
- Jockey only 8 from 91 over these staying races also in the last 2 years.
SUMMARY
Make no mistake the favourite wouldn’t get within 3-4 lengths (at least) if the best of Spanish Mission shows up. But off a leg issue that I’m hearing is significant he’s obviously missed work and that’s a huge negative. I’m discounting him on the leg issues completely but it’s a shame we won’t see the clash we wantet. He’s a proper horse with a turn of foot.
#4 VERRY ELLEEGANT (19) | $15
CASE FOR
- Was a superstar not long ago.
- Comes with different form from the Cox Plate (where everything possible went right for it)
- Went well when very suited in last years Cup.
- Australia’s best rider.
CASE AGAINST
- Has 57kg.
- Has been horribly out of form this prep.
- Firm is no good for her.
- Only 7040m in the legs.
SUMMARY
Champion mare but all prep she has shown signs she is not the horse she was. The Cox Plate was a fancy Group 3 this year and she got her perfect conditions and still only ran third where previously she would have killed that lot. She hates firm as she has got older especially. I like her in the race as it will attract the mug money but that’s about all for her.
#5 EXPLOSIVE JACK (4) | $31
CASE FOR
- Trainers are 26% over the staying trips.
- Won 4 Derbys, If we use that fitness base his fit!
- John Allen is 19% over these staying trips.
CASE AGAINST
- He had way too much racing last prep and horses rarely rebound and recover which we are seeing now.
- Maps to get back in the field.
SUMMARY
4yo Stallion so he has the ability to handle pressure as we saw last pre. He’s never rated very well with me in saying that despite being an Iron horse. Would say based on fitness levels alone he’s not a chance to fill 4th but he’s not one for me to seriously consider. I wish I owned him though! Pace best.
#6 THE CHOSEN ONE (5) | $31
CASE FOR
- Ran 4th last year but that was a slow run bunched finish.
- Murray is one of the best trainers in the Hemisphere for stayers.
- Great Map!
- D Lane is 17% staying rides.
CASE AGAINST
- He hasn’t the miles in his legs.
- He hasn’t won on a proper Group track since September last year when 1st up.
SUMMARY
He maps awesome here but again you need miles in the legs and he’s short again this year which means he will come up short in terms of a winning chance.
#7 DELPHI (3) | $19
CASE FOR
- Has one of the top 3-4 trainers in Australia who operates at 20% for stayers.
- D Oliver is freak on his day!
CASE AGAINST
- Whilst he’s a freak on his day he hasn’t had a good record recently.
- Just 6% strike rate for Oliver on staying races the last 2 years, 5 from 81.
- I suspect they will ride him conservative which is taking away the horses ACE.
SUMMARY
He’s a proper stayer but they need to have faith in the horse and either stalk Twilight Payment if he sets up a lead or take up the lead if he doesn’t. I don’t think they will do that and that will negate his chance, place best.
#8 OCEAN BILLY (13) | $61
CASE FOR
- His rider is at a huge 20% strike rate so obviously has a good clock in his head which is huge plus in staying races.
- Firm should be fine.
CASE AGAINST
- Trainer is 12% strike rate over these distance.
- Flogged in the Caulfield Cup.
- Only 6600m in the legs.
SUMMARY
Hard horse to come into. Has next to nothing to recommend, even his NZ Cup win was poor in times wise, but at least he won, not for me though.
#9 SELINO (24) | $51
CASE FOR
- Sydney Cup winner who did well in that race.
CASE AGAINST
- 8520m so won’t be ready for this
- Rider is 2 from 5 this trip.
SUMMARY
Very pleased to see them give Ronnie Stewart a go, he is a solid rider and can count so will suit the horse. This horse has an ASCOT carnival run that would see him top 5-6 here so I couldn’t nock him completely from running a drum, but he gets back and he will need a proper tempo from a long way out. The main issue is that lack of miles in his legs.
#10 JOHNNY GET ANGRY (22) | $81
CASE FOR
- Derby winner.
- Blks off and Cross over off.
CASE AGAINST
- Rider will be super pumped to get a ride but out of form recently and at the trip 1 win from 52 recently and 1 from 21 over this staying race.
SUMMARY
Good on them for having a runner but he’s no chance, but I hope he finishes in the money for all the flack they have copped.
#11 KNIGHTS ORDER (9) | $81
CASE FOR
- 19020m to its name which is excellent.
- Has a suspect QLD cup to its name in a sit and sprint.
- Does come from fast run races recently.
- Waterhouse/Bott are 18% over the staying events.
CASE AGAINST
- Firm ground.
- He has 3 flat tyres at present and can’t get to the turn.
- Rider is 13% over the trip.
SUMMARY
A slow run race is it’s best hope. One of only a few leaders in the race so he might get a picnic. Gets BLKS off which might help but he needs a lot of help and not for me.
#12 PERSAN (11) | $23
CASE FOR
- 3rd in a suss CC.
- 5th in a very slow run race last year.
- Trainers are 26% with staying events.
- 4 of his recent wins are here.
- He very much likes firm ground.
CASE AGAINST
- Has CC form which looks suss.
- Only 6100m in his legs but he’s not a sharp horse either so even if they go slow that’s not an ACE for him.
SUMMARY
Favourite has owned him in recent clashes so hard to see him turning the tables. I feel his past his best and has no upside.
#13 CARIF (8) | $101
CASE FOR
- Well bred.
- Top Jockey with a brain in his head and he can win races he shouldn’t.
- 17420m in it’s legs which is very good.
CASE AGAINST
- Fantastic Trainers but not with stayers.
- Trainers 1 from 16 in the staying events over a trip, albeit they don’t get many and I suspect a lot of those stats are for slow sprinters they try and make stay.
SUMMARY
I was keen to make a case for him but when I pull his stats apart over trips he doesn’t run the trip and I think he’s not real brave. He was going much better last season at the same time. He’s had 3 recent runs this track and not been beaten further than 2 lengths. He won at Sandown in a horrible rating race last year over this trip but he’s not hitting the line in any of his runs including the QLD CUP. He at least has fitness to his name with a huge grounding and he will be $51 the place at least so could offer value if you want to go wider with a top jockey engaged, especially if they go slow, in a genuine run race I think his none.
#14 MASTER OF WINE (6) | $71
CASE FOR
- He likes big tracks and 3 good run here’s.
- He’s desperate for firm ground.
CASE AGAINST
- He hasn’t the miles in his legs.
- Trainers are 1 from 24 over a staying trip.
- Horses sectionals say he cant run 2200m let alone further
- He’s out of form.
- 4 from 52 for his rider over these trips for 8%.
SUMMARY
His run here behind Grand Promenade he had a PR of all PRS and still couldn’t win. Fast tempo up front he was ok late visually but it ranked 77th best L400 and 62nd best L200 so he hardly charged but it was at least a solid effort. The Caulfield cup which I think is suspect form, he was in the worst part of the ground but Shes Ideal put 4 on him late with a similar run and he really seemed to give up. The horse looks to have lost his zest, in saying all of that, his firm track stuff is very good albeit over shorter.
#15 PONDUS (1) | $26
CASE FOR
- Maps perfect.
- has ratings good enough to run top 3.
- Does no work and R King can get horses to “run and travel which is important for them to conserve energy.
- Importantly has the metres in the legs which is a must.
- Firm track no worries.
CASE AGAINST
• If its slow run he doesn’t have the turn of foot.
• R King is 12% over these staying distance ranges in the last 2 years.
SUMMARY
I think you have to include him in everything. Ignore his last run in which he got a poor ride and it was a sit and sprint race not run to suit. No weight to carry for him and his run 1st up off the plain at Flemington I think was his real “tune up” with the last run a “prep run”, he’s the value in the race!
#16 GRANDE PROMENADE (21) | $16
CASE FOR
- 2nd fittest horse in the race is a huge plus.
- Hopefully they roll forward on average tempo.
- Firm ground ok.
- Good record this track.
CASE AGAINST
- Had a few goes over the trip and whilst he gets 2500m he doesn’t run further.
- 31 days between runs is horrible.
- Rider is 8% over these trips which is a surprise to me.
SUMMARY
Tied to Great House which is the main drag but I think she is going to run huge here and is great place chance. Her effort was huge last time in the wrong part of the track and her Sydney Cup run says the trip will be ok. Plus we all know Sydney Form is superior to Melbourne!!!!
#17 MIAMI BOUND (17) | $101
CASE FOR
- Trainer has won the race.
- Rider is huge 26% the last 30 days.
- Blinkers go on.
- Does have a Group 1 win this track over 2500m.
CASE AGAINST
- Rider is 10% these staying races.
- Trainer is only 11% these staying events.
- Each run they have asked her to go she puts her head up and to the side meaning she has been sore.
- Hates firm.
SUMMARY
Has had 4 goes this trip for a 3rd in the Sydney Cup on a dead track. I don’t like her at all unless it was bottomless ground which it won’t be.
#18 PORT GUILLAUME (23) | $126
CASE FOR
- His French form is classy and could win the race.
CASE AGAINST
- Trainers 8%.
- Rider is 8% and not going great.
SUMMARY
Good on them for having a runner but he’s no chance, but I hope he finishes in the money for all the flack they have copped.
#19 SHE’S IDEEL (20) | $81
CASE FOR
- 9800m only but Bjorn is one trainer that has them fit for these types of races.
- Trainer is 25% the last 2 years over these extended trips.
- Her run in the CC was excellent and best of prep.
- Her Sydney Cup (poor edition) was excellent.
CASE AGAINST
- Great house has beaten it home twice this prep and was owned in the Metrop.
- Mares have poor records outside Middle Draws.
- Rider is 8% over these trips.
SUMMARY
Tied to Great House which is the main drag but I think she is going to run huge here and is great place chance. Her effort was huge last time in the wrong part of the track and her Sydney Cup run says the trip will be ok. Plus we all know Sydney Form is superior to Melbourne!!!!
#20 FUTURE SCORE (15) | $126
CASE FOR
- Won a 2600m race in 2019 here but there has been 4 wins in metro races out of that win so the race was legless.
- Firm track is ok.
- Does come out of 2 of its last 3 runs in very fast run races which is a great help.
CASE AGAINST
- Trainer is 8.6% over the distance races.
- Rider is 11% over the distance races.
- Only 6900m in the legs.
SUMMARY
Hard to make a case for this bloke at all.
#21 TRALEE ROSE (12) | $15
CASE FOR
- Good trainer overall.
- Comes from two brutal speed races which is a huge tick.
- Very firm ground is great for her.
CASE AGAINST
- Mares have a poor record in the race.
- Trainer is 13% this distance.
- Rider is 4 from 66 at the staying races.
- Her sectionals say she doesn’t run the trip.
- Only 8620m to her name.
SUMMARY
I’ve done her sectionals over all these extended trips and she doesn’t have much to recommend. She is not strong late even in slow run races and she doesn’t quicken. I like the two brutal speed races she comes from as that’s a good grounding but only 8620m is a negative also which I cant get past. If they don’t go fast early like I suggest she is also in a tricky spot on the map initially.
#22 FLOATING ARTIST (10) | $16
CASE FOR
- One run for a high rating and fast run race at the track.
- Firm ground no issues.
- Trainers are 26% with staying events.
- Doesn’t have CC form.
- Can only get a better ride from the last 2 rides.
- Nugent is 15% over the trips so he’s going well especially for an apprentice.
- Trip will be no issue.
- 11,000m in his legs is perfect especially if slow.
- I reckon this kid will pull a 10/10 ride out after given another chance
CASE AGAINST
- Lacks class but tries hard this horse.
SUMMARY
He’s a proper danger in this race, drops in weight and forget the Mooney Valley run where he got a horror ride and in a slow run race which is not his best shape he still had the 7th best L200 on the card and that run for mine was almost like a “prep run”. The run prior was in good time albeit over the shorter distance but this will play into his hands if it’s a slow run race as he will have some zip and freshness. His ride before at Caulfield was a balls up as ridden way to conservative and the horse had a tank full of petrol left. I like the rider despite two horrors the last two and big credit to connections to keep him on at 50kg. I hope they are positive on him and if they are he’s a Top 4 chance even though he hasn’t the class of some.
#23 GREAT HOUSE (7) | $23
CASE FOR
- 18200m in his legs which is excellent.
- Horses from the Hotham generally run well withought winning.
- His fit and on a quick back up.
CASE AGAINST
- European horses generally don’t back up within 7 days great.
- Trainer is 12% strike rate over these distance.
- His rider is 7%.
SUMMARY
Waller is great at keeping his horses fit and healthy but he normally struggles in this race because of the lack of miles in their legs, but this horse defies all of that and whilst the Hotham winner normally has too big an ask he’s a horse who will run very well and make up for that lack of class with a excellent base fitness. A lot of Europeans struggle on the very quick back up but I suggest this horse will be fine. Forget his one run here prior which was a very slow run race and when he was fresh/first up I thought he had every chance in the CC and that’s the worry, I think that form is suss. But his run before was good in Metrop (also very suss form). Both times in recent times he has beaten She’s Ideel home, I’m going to put him in wide First 4’s to run 3rd and 4th.
#24 SIR LUCAN (18) | $26
CASE FOR
- Waterhouse/Bott are 18% over the staying events.
- Boss is16% over these staying trips.
- 3yr old europeans have a good profile in recent years.
- Different form is a tick.
CASE AGAINST
- Leaves A Obrien yard and 99% of them lose a leg.
- Doesn’t stay on its run in the UK.
- Looks a little horse and he has on several occasions pulled up.
- He gets back (but will he with Gai?)
SUMMARY
He comes from only average rating races and would need to find 4-6 lens to get near Spanish Mission at his best but we know that horse is almost out of play, he needs 5-6 lens to get near Twilight Payment also. I tried very hard to like him but he seems a little ungenuine in his UK runs and if they don’t go for Aiden O’Brien even the great Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott will have their hands full. I’m giving him none despite his sexy profile and DIFFERENT FORM. Im sure there will be plenty of people cheering JOHNNY GET ANGRY to beat this home.
*Rider stats are over 2300m+ over the last 2 years.
IN CLOSING
So there we have it, full disclosure I’ll be cheering for Incentivise due to my value Calcutta ticket.
SELECTIONS
- INCENTIVISE
- FLOATING ARTIST
- PONDUS
- SHE’S IDEAL
Best of luck and big congratulations to all involved, it’s a huge thrill to have a runner even if it is 200/1 so hopefully they all get around safely and all get their chance!
Luke Murrell
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