Hi all, here are my thoughts for Saturday’s Cox Plate including downloadable speedmap.
Simply put if the Japanese mare produces her average rating of this year in Japan then she would beat Winx by 2-3 lengths, she is that good.
But her two HK runs have seen her race about 8 lengths below that which given she has had 2 goes suggests she doesn’t travel great or needs some help only at home can provide!
Below I have included her last home start run where interestingly she lead initially in an easy time and then she brained them and ran some very impressive figures.
LYS GRACEIUX – Last home start rating – Download
Fast tempo here with Magic Wand running free and Cape of Good Hope rolling forward to claim a spot, then Brave Heart Bart and Homesman definitely pushing on.
The fly in the ointment is LYS GRACIEUX, she lead for the first time last start in the past few years and ran a Winx Like number. In fact she has better figures in her races than Winx and naturally if she produces that here it could be a margin job.
The negative for her is she isn’t that fast away from the gates and if they attempt that then she is in a world of pain and will have to do it the tough way.
If they ride her back and wide like normal she still maps horrendous and it’s what gives everyone else a great chance.
Also as a negative her efforts in HK have been 6 to 9 lengths below what she averages in Japan, maybe she likes the Japan Water only ? 🙂
If she is off her game then Danceteria’s run at Longchamp would see him run top 3 here assuming he gets around the track and it should also mean he is genuine winning chance.
His best effort is 2-3 lengths better than Avilius and Mystic who are the next best chances and if the Japanese mare runs to her HK form that’s 2 len behind us!
Can’t entertain anything else with the exception of Cape Of Good Hope who ran to a good and surprising figure last start but he hadn’t gone close to that any other time in his career and given it was a barrier trial speed I think that form is no good.
Te Akau Shark was very strong last start so will handle the trip but bad map and doesn’t have Gr 1 Class change of speed albeit is tough.
BET: 1 unit Each Way on Danceteria @ $19/$5.5
Last Preview: -0.7u | Running Tally: +11.3u (4 races)
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