With the Final of the Country Championship on today I thought i’d preview the race and see what we find ourselves at Randwick. An issue I have is the last time we got a true track and heavy here you wanted to find horses fence in run and in lanes 1 to 4 in the straight.
Bobbing – Settles Last
All things being even he has them all covered here – on ratings he should be giving them 8kg to 13.5kg so he’s amazingly weighted in the race. He’s won here and ran 3rd in the Kousicuko and beaten 2.5 lengths in a Group 2 Behind Quackerjack. 4 of his 5 wins are at 1350m to 1500m so distance won be any issue at all. Simply if the track is fair and he gets even luck he should shit in, he’s a different league. He’s won 2nd up off a similar break and to be fair he’s the deserving favourite. If he has one negative he hasn’t won since the 13th of April last year from his 6 subsequent runs, albeit they where much much better fields than this and the furthersest margin was 3.5 lengths. Wet track no issue at all, the one to beat.
Two Big Fari – On speed
Super tough and consistent horse and whilst he’s in the market I’m a little against him. He had to have a mini grand final to qualify for the Mbrook heat which he did when he won at Warwick Farm. Then he had to have him “up again for the final qualifier”. To then have him up again I think is too big an ask. Horse has never seen Randwick but is 2 from 2 at the distance. Avdulla will give him every chance but I think minor money at best for him given he’s 6th up. Definite exotics chance as he looks a tough trying horse but he can win without me. He’s only really seen a slow 6 at best on my times so heavier will be a question mark.
Healing Hands – Forward midfield
Obviously injury plagued but a handy horse who does map well here. He failed here last time over 1100m (but did bleed) and given he is a bleeder I would have preferred him with a bigger gap between runs. Nice horse and nice map with 3 wins from 3 at the 1300-1400m range. Some could say he was lets say “ultra conservative” 18 days ago. I can have him filling a minor money spot but not top 2. Never seen a heavy track.
Casino Mondial – Midfield
Comes from a weak heat but this guy Beyers can really train. The horse has had one go on a heavy track at Warwick farm when $11 and he was beaten 7 when every chance. He’s also done a strange thing winning last start at 1600m and is now 22 days between runs back to 1400m where he hasn’t been capable of winning. Good trainer and has been well placed but he’s not this class.
Sneak Preview – Forward of Midfield
With a good trainer in Kody Nestor. 1st Up he looked to be lacking intent, big weight quite ride, but not surprising heavily backed 2nd up and won his heat when out to his right distance range. He’s won 5 from 10 overall and 2 from 2 at 1400m. He’s by Smart Missile and most handle the give out of the track (this horse won 1st up one day at Narromine on a very heavy track). He maps great here and is a genuine chance to run 3rd or 4th for those exotic players and in fact if he could improve 3 lengths is capable of doing even better. He’s a great chance here thanks to the map, if they settle closer, T Clark on and he’s a fantastic price for a horse with ability.
Julian Rock – Forward of midfield
I think they will be positive and go forward and he’s another in a really good camp. This horse has already won 2 metro midweek style of races and has placed 2nd on a heavy track on a Saturday, so he gets plenty of ticks. What I don’t like is he will have to spend some carrots to get across or be forced wide and the 48 days is a very strange set up for the horse, albeit off a 1000m trial win. He goes ok and is a top 4 chance but I can’t have him as a top 2 chance due to map and set up. 3 of his 4 wins have been 1300-1400m.
Ligulate – Worse than Midfield
I’m surprised he is so short but he will go back and he will be one horse that should love the no crowd scenario. Cody Morgan is NSW’s best young trainer and will have him ready. But he normally can run his race in the mounting yard so you will want to see him be sensible here. He’s won 2 metro races including one Saturday race. 3 of his 4 wins have been 1400m, 2 of his 4 wins have been when fresh also so for mine the 27 days between is ok. He ran good figures at Tamworth in the wrong part of the track after an amazingly brave ride from Sammie Clenton. He’s won 2 of his races on a dead 5 and a slow 6 but heavy would be a worry and concern given he weighs 660kg plus. He’s a genuine top 4 chance and can run top 2 but needs them to be able to run on and for Bobbing to find traffic.
AL Mah Haha – Midfield
I’m a fan of this trainer as they have improved the horse as they do often from the big name trainers. If the inside is “on” this horse maps awesome on the inside, however he’s a 1300m horse really so he could struggle if the track is too testing. He’s by Al Maher and they like a wet track although the horse has only seen 1 slow track when with Waller for a 2 length defeat at Rosehill midweek. Can’t win but maybe could add value for 4th in a exotic.
Plonka – Forward of midfield
Honest little horse and he tries hard. A huge distance doubt but the times where ok on his qualifier win. He’s failed horrible when $1.85 on his only go at a wet track but I can forgive that run as they woudln’t have had him ready given this was the aim. I don’t like him as he has to work too much and won’t have anything left late here.
Hit The Target – Leader
If they put the handle bars down this is his best chance. He was very brave in the Tamworth heat and he’s won 4 of his races between 1300 to 1500m. I see a lot of people have this horse as a wet track horse but i’m the opposite, he’s had one go on a slow in a suitable SW race at Muswellbrook behind Noble Boy and his only other go on genuine slow track was Canterbury and we all know wet tracks there don’t count and even so he had every possible. If they just ride him ugly and handle bars down I think he’s the best roughie in the race but only on a dead track. He will be 30/1 and I can see him with a brave aggressive ride just running them off their legs if they go for it. IF the track is playing on speed and the fence, like it quite easily could, at the price he is worth including.
Fast Talking – Worse than Midfield
I think they will go back and unlucky for them as he was one if he had a draw, being in the Kody Nestor camp he had a chance. But now he has got the widest draw he looks to be buggered. Has the great man N Rawiller so could be strong late but he can’t win, 3rd or 4th best only for his fans. Never won at the trip, wet track no issue here but that map is horrible. If he was mine i’d suggest they ride him dead cold and angle to the outside fence, albeit he will travel some ground to get there, but we know the outside fence will be the firmest. But with a true rail it might be counter productive with the extra ground but they have to try something, he’s a nice horse.
Magnalane – On speed
It’s a slow horse and got an amazing Sammie Clenton ride to win its heat. It’s 2nd up off 41 days with BLKS first time, all things I strongly dislike. I give it no chance albeit they have done well to win a rich heat to qualify it.
Electrified – Midfield
It’s midfield here and gets Hughie but its just not close to this level and i give it none. It doesn’t like wet either so would need a miracle.
Gracie Belle – Worse midfield
Gets a bad draw if the fence is on and a shithouse draw if it’s off. Wouldn’t travel 1400m even if dropped from a plane from 1400m up in the air so can’t have it at all. By Top Echelon so wet should be fine but really it should be 200-1 not 23-1.
Sky Call – Forward of Midfield
He’s had 4 runs at 1300-1400m for 2 wins and a 2nd at Sandown with the failure at Flemington over 1400m only when no hope that day. He maps best of the race and brings some different but decent form. Its never seen a dead 5 or better and if this had Jmac, Avdulla, Tom Marquand or Nash i’d have it 2nd or 3rd pick. $23 is completely the wrong price and is the best roughie in the race even though it found the biased lane in its heat win.
Bennelong Dancer – Midfield
Will be wide here and amazing job by the camp to qualify it but its not good enough to win.
Summary
It’s BOBBING’S race to lose. If he shows up and gets a fair track he will win easy. If he gets bad luck then only Ligulate Sky Call, Julain Rock and Hit The Target will be the ones to upset the apple cart.
Members are on BOBBING at $11 from a few weeks ago with 2 units!
I still think Bobbing is a decent bet at the current price and Sky Call an EW play if you like him.
Bet – I’d suggest playing a First 4.
1st: Bobbing, Ligulate, Sky Call
2nd: Bobbing, Ligulate, Sky Call, Hit the Target, Julian Rock
3rd: Bobbing, Ligulate, Sky Call, Hit the Target, Julian Rock, Two Big Fari, Sneak Preview, Healing Hands, Fast Talking
4th: Bobbing, Ligulate, Sky Call, Hit the Target, Julian Rock, Two Big Fari, Sneak Preview, Healing Hands, Fast Talking.
Have an awesome day on the punt everyone!