The first big race of the Moonee Valley season kicks off tonight and whilst it’s a Group 1 in status, it’s brought together all sorts this year and I thought it was a very tasty race to bet into.
Firstly the rail goes to 4m and in these short course events it’s a genuine conveyor belt of winners up and inside on speed. To make matters worse for get-back horses we have a North-to-North Westerly wind which will even further enhance the on-speed and inside horses chances. If you are back and wide good luck, they will be the ones to really suffer.
One of the best rules about 1000m races is to go looking for 1000m horses. It’s a specialty distance, so let’s go through the field.
For a 1000m Group 1 you would assume there would be tons of speed, but there is a serious chance they only go an average speed here, further taking away from the run on horses.
September Run: Barrier 1 and at best will be 4 back the fence if not buried completely. She is a nice mare but her only genuine form is the Flemington Straight so I give her none here and could have had her $18 really.
Shaquero: Never been a horse that has rated any good for me but he gets 2nd or at worst 3rd pair the fence and is a great roughie for a place. I have him at best a Listed horse and would think this is too rich despite him getting multiple ticks on the map and race shape.
Trekking: Amazing old horse but back looking for runs he will find these too sharp.
Wild Ruler: Hugely interesting. We know Sydney form is much better than Melbourne form so that is a huge plus and comes from one of the top yards in the land who know how to win a big race. But the issue is the stables last 231 runners have produced just 15 winners @ 6.5%. Against that gets Australia’s most underated rider in Daniel Moor and gets an A1 spot on the map, especially if he can cross Shaquero and hold Ballistic Lover to his outside. The horse comes off his career best run (but was that flattered, something had to run 2nd ? off a PR). The horse did regress 2nd up last time but I’d think 1st up was a bonus and he will be ready here.
The Inferno: Got a few favours to suit last time but for me he’s not a 1000m horse. Should be wide into the wind here and will find the front few off and gone, he will be strong late but not for me.
Ballistic Lover: Got a Xmas last start leading well below average in a 1000m Listed race. For her she is going great but she should be well exposed here. The quickest she has ever gone in a 1000m race early is 1 length above average and surely they burn her off here.
Profiteer: Extremely sharp 2yr old with a huge rating down the straight and then not much else despite the visually stunning win in Sydney. He should lead and find the A1 spot and he gets every possible favour here. If he is going to be any good he’s your winner. But bit of a D-Day for him as post this we will know his fate and future. This race has a smell of Grand Final for him and the camp are an impressive 18% first up with all their horses.
Portland Sky: Started fav in the lead up and his main issue here is he finds the shittest spot in racing which is outside leader and made worse depending how fast they go. He’s a colt so happy to forgive him first up and he warrants huge respect and for mine the one to beat for Profiteer.
Swats That: One of my favourite horses but she is in a world of pain here and has none unless the conditions change and the leaders collapse.
Brooklyn Hustle: Has a huge following but will be back and wide and whilst she is a genuine 1000m horse I don’t see how she can give them 6-8 lengths head start with the nights conditions predicted. She will look great and flash but can’t win.
Miss Albania: Nice enough horse who needs Listed races not Group 1.
Luke Murrell’s betting service is up over $18,000 this year and over $700,000 from 2010.
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